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Creators/Authors contains: "Nilsson, Johan"

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  1. Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet's negative mass balance is driven by a sensitivity to both a warming atmosphere and ocean. The fidelity of ice-sheet models in accounting for ice-ocean interaction is inherently uncertain and often constrained against recent fluctuations in the ice-sheet margin from the previous decades. The geological record can be utilised to contextualise ice-sheet mass loss and understand the drivers of changes at the marine margin across climatic shifts and previous extended warm periods, aiding our understanding of future ice-sheet behaviour. Here, we use the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to explore the Holocene evolution of Ryder Glacier draining into Sherard Osborn Fjord, Northern Greenland. Our modelling results are constrained with terrestrial reconstructions of the paleo-ice sheet margin and an extensive marine sediment record from Sherard Osborn Fjord that details ice dynamics over the past 12.5 ka years. By employing a consistent mesh resolution of <1 km at the ice-ocean boundary, we assess the importance of atmospheric and oceanic changes to Ryder Glacier's Holocene behaviour. Our simulations show that the initial retreat of the ice margin after the Younger Dryas cold period was driven by a warming climate and the resulting fluctuations in Surface Mass Balance. Changing atmospheric conditions remain the first order control in the timing of ice retreat during the Holocene. We find ice-ocean interactions become increasingly fundamental to Ryder's retreat in the mid-Holocene; with higher than contemporary melt rates required to force grounding line retreat and capture the collapse of the ice tongue during the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Regrowth of the tongue during the neo-glacial cooling of the late Holocene is necessary to advance both the terrestrial and marine margins of the glacier. Our results stress the importance of accurately resolving the ice-ocean interface in modelling efforts over centennial and millennial time scales, in particular the role of floating ice tongues and submarine melt, and provide vital analogous for the future evolution of Ryder in a warming climate. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 20, 2026
  2. Abstract Observations from the past decades have promoted the idea of a long-lived anticyclonic vortex residing in the Lofoten Basin. Despite repeatedly recorded intense anticyclones, the observations cannot firmly decide whether the signature is of a single vortex or a succession of ephemeral vortices. A vortex persisting for decades requires some reinvigoration mechanism. Wintertime convection and vortex merging have been proposed candidates. We examine Lofoten Basin vortex dynamics using a high-resolution regional ocean model. The model is initialized from a coarser state with a weak eddy field. The slope current intensifies and sheds anticyclonic eddies that drift into the basin. After half a year, an anticyclone arrives at the center, providing the nucleus for a vortex that remains distinct throughout the simulation. Analyses show that this vortex is regenerated by repeated absorption and vertical stacking of lighter anticyclones. This compresses and—in concert with potential vorticity conservation—intensifies the combined vortex, which becomes more vertically stratified and also expels some fluid in the process. Wintertime convection serves mainly to vertically homogenize and densify the vortex, rather than intensifying it. Further, topographic guiding of anticyclones shed from the continental slope is vital for the existence and reinvigoration of the Lofoten vortex. These results offer a new perspective on the regeneration of oceanic anticyclones. In this scenario the Lofoten vortex is maintained through repeated merging events. Fluid remains gradually exchanged, although the vortex is identifiable as a persistent extremum in potential vorticity. 
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  3. Abstract. The northern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet is considered to beparticularly susceptible to ice mass loss arising from increased glacierdischarge in the coming decades. However, the past extent and dynamics ofoutlet glaciers in this region, and hence their vulnerability to climatechange, are poorly documented. In the summer of 2019, the Swedish icebreakerOden entered the previously unchartered waters of Sherard Osborn Fjord, whereRyder Glacier drains approximately 2 % of Greenland's ice sheet into theLincoln Sea. Here we reconstruct the Holocene dynamics of Ryder Glacier andits ice tongue by combining radiocarbon dating with sedimentary faciesanalyses along a 45 km transect of marine sediment cores collected betweenthe modern ice tongue margin and the mouth of the fjord. The resultsillustrate that Ryder Glacier retreated from a grounded position at thefjord mouth during the Early Holocene (> 10.7±0.4 ka cal BP) and receded more than 120 km to the end of Sherard Osborn Fjord by theMiddle Holocene (6.3±0.3 ka cal BP), likely becoming completelyland-based. A re-advance of Ryder Glacier occurred in the Late Holocene,becoming marine-based around 3.9±0.4 ka cal BP. An ice tongue,similar in extent to its current position was established in the LateHolocene (between 3.6±0.4 and 2.9±0.4 ka cal BP) andextended to its maximum historical position near the fjord mouth around 0.9±0.3 ka cal BP. Laminated, clast-poor sediments were deposited duringthe entire retreat and regrowth phases, suggesting the persistence of an icetongue that only collapsed when the glacier retreated behind a prominenttopographic high at the landward end of the fjord. Sherard Osborn Fjordnarrows inland, is constrained by steep-sided cliffs, contains a number ofbathymetric pinning points that also shield the modern ice tongue andgrounding zone from warm Atlantic waters, and has a shallowing inlandsub-ice topography. These features are conducive to glacier stability andcan explain the persistence of Ryder's ice tongue while the glacier remainedmarine-based. However, the physiography of the fjord did not halt thedramatic retreat of Ryder Glacier under the relatively mild changes inclimate forcing during the Holocene. Presently, Ryder Glacier is groundedmore than 40 km seaward of its inferred position during the Middle Holocene,highlighting the potential for substantial retreat in response to ongoingclimate change. 
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  4. While the Atlantic Ocean is ventilated by high-latitude deep water formation and exhibits a pole-to-pole overturning circulation, the Pacific Ocean does not. This asymmetric global overturning pattern has persisted for the past 2–3 million years, with evidence for different ventilation modes in the deeper past. In the current climate, the Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry occurs because the Atlantic is more saline, enabling deep convection. To what extent the salinity contrast between the two basins is dominated by atmospheric processes (larger net evaporation over the Atlantic) or oceanic processes (salinity transport into the Atlantic) remains an outstanding question. Numerical simulations have provided support for both mechanisms; observations of the present climate support a strong role for atmospheric processes as well as some modulation by oceanic processes. A major avenue for future work is the quantification of the various processes at play to identify which mechanisms are primary in different climate states. 
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